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COIN Lags Industry YTD, Trades at Premium: What Should Investors Do?

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Key Takeaways

  • COIN shares have fallen 13.1% YTD, underperforming the industry, sector and the S&P 500.
  • COIN is expanding products, launching EU crypto futures and rolling out U.S. stock and ETF trading.
  • COIN trades at a 60.37X forward P/E and faces estimate cuts and earnings risk tied to crypto prices.

Shares of Coinbase Global (COIN - Free Report) have lost 13.1% year to date, underperforming the industry, sector and the Zacks S&P 500 composite in the same time frame. 

COIN, a crypto leader, is poised to benefit from listing a broader range of digital assets and tokenized equities, international expansion and strategic buyouts. As the largest registered crypto exchange in the United States, Coinbase is well-placed to take advantage of increased market volatility and rising crypto asset prices. As the United States positions itself as a global crypto hub, COIN’s ambition to become an all-encompassing exchange for the industry appears well aligned. Coinbase is poised for a strong 2026 as it executes on its long-term strategic roadmap.  

COIN vs. Industry, Sector, S&P 500 YTD

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Robinhood Markets (HOOD - Free Report) , a crypto-oriented company, has lost 30.5% year to date, while Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR - Free Report) has gained 6.5% in the same time frame.

Muted Analyst Sentiment for COIN

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 and 2027 earnings has moved 48% and 40% south, respectively, in the past 30 days.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The consensus estimates for 2026 and 2027 EPS of Robinhood Markets moved south in the past 30 days. However, the same for Interactive Brokers Group witnessed no movement in the same time frame.

Optimistic Long-Term Growth Outlook of COIN

Though the Zacks Consensus Estimate for both 2026 revenues and EPS indicates a year-over- year decline, the consensus estimate for 2027 revenues and EPS  implies a year-over-year increase. Long-term earnings are expected to improve 21%, better than the industry average of 19.1%

COIN is Expensive 

COIN shares are trading at a premium to the industry. Its 12-month forward price-to-earnings of 60.37X is much higher than the industry average of 9.87X and the median of 47.09X over the past three years.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Its Value Score of D suggests that the stock is not so cheap and indicates a stretched valuation at this moment.

COIN is more expensive than both Robinhood Markets and Interactive Brokers Group.

Investment Thesis on Coinbase

Coinbase is strengthening its growth strategy by expanding its share of the U.S. spot and derivatives markets while broadening its product lineup and international footprint. The company continues to list additional cryptocurrencies and tokenized equities, maintaining a strong focus on launching digital assets that support a pro-crypto ecosystem. Recently, Coinbase introduced regulated futures contracts in Europe, enabling users to trade a range of crypto contracts—from Bitcoin to Solana—as well as equity-index futures.

The platform has also rolled out stock and ETF trading for users across the United States, significantly expanding its total addressable market beyond digital assets and improving its competitive position against diversified fintech brokerages.

In 2026, Coinbase plans to prioritize real-world asset (RWA) perpetuals, specialized exchanges and advanced trading platforms, next-generation decentralized finance infrastructure and deeper integration of artificial intelligence and robotics. These initiatives are designed to create a more unified and comprehensive ecosystem, reinforcing the company’s leadership within the industry.

From a financial perspective, Coinbase remains in a solid position, supported by strong liquidity and continued debt reduction that has improved its total debt-to-capital ratio. However, the issuance of $2.6 billion in convertible notes introduces potential risks, including possible shareholder dilution and higher leverage.

The company’s results remain closely linked to movements in cryptocurrency prices. Declines in assets such as Bitcoin or Ethereum could negatively impact earnings, asset valuations, cash flows, liquidity, and the company’s ability to meet its financial obligations.

To support expansion and long-term growth, Coinbase has increased its investments in the business. As a result, spending on technology and development, sales and marketing, and general and administrative functions has risen in recent quarters. At the same time, pricing pressure on certain assets—due to declines in the market value of some digital assets held on its balance sheet—has led the company to record crypto-asset impairment charges, while cost-optimization initiatives have generated restructuring and other operating expenses.

What Should Investors Do with COIN Stock?

Coinbase’s efforts to expand the crypto ecosystem, capture greater spot trading share across retail and institutional markets, and continuously enhance its platform are likely driving solid growth. Higher average USDC balances, increasing USDC market cap and steadier crypto prices may also support more stable revenues. 

However, considering its premium valuation, reduced volatility, weaker asset prices, muted analyst sentiment, near term pressure on revenues and earnings, below-average return on equity and VGM Score of F, it is better to shy away from this Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) stock presently. 

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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